The Bruins have three restricted free agents this offseason (not including the current AHLers), and they must find a way to resign all of them, particularly Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo. Danton Heinen, while he gets a lot of hate from some due to his inconsistent and somewhat lacking offensive production, needs to be resigned as he is a reliable defensive forward who does his job well and will be pretty cheap. It is reasonable to assume the Bruins will find a way to get all of them done and do so before training camp begins in September, as they only have three unrestricted free agents to attend to (more on them in another post). Here’s what I think each of their next contracts should look like and why.
- Brandon Carlo
Carlo proved this season and throughout the playoffs that while he’s not flashy and doesn’t provide much offensively (he had two goals and eight assists in 72 regular season games and two goals and two assists in 24 playoff games), he is a key part of the team and is an excellent shutdown defender. He’s consistent and handles pressure well, as he didn’t looked rattled in the slightest during what was his first playoff run. He’s also one of the team’s top penalty killers and can be relied on in any situation to play a shutdown role. He has been the perfect complement to Torey Krug, as he makes up for Krug’s shortcomings in size (he’s 6’5” while Krug is a mere 5’9”) and sometimes defense (which have gotten much less, although many people don’t want to admit it), and Krug makes up for Carlo’s offensive shortcomings. As such, I believe the Bruins lock him up long term (at least six years) and I would not be surprised if it is for the max term. I expect the AAV to be around $4-$4.5 million, and I don’t see any reason the player or the team would have any problem with that type of deal. Carlo is still very young at just 22, but it is safe to say we know what to expect from his at this point: not much in the way of points, but an excellent (if not elite) shutdown defender, and I expect both the Bruins and Carlo will be very comfortable with a long-term deal that is both team-friendly and what Carlo actually deserves.
- Danton Heinen
To all the people who want Heinen traded or think the Bruins shouldn’t resign him, I have one thing to say to you: just no. I’ll admit, I found Heinen incredibly frustrating at times this season with his inconsistency offensively and his complete inability to finish plays at times (i.e. missing wide open nets). But, Heinen is a reliable defensive forward who’s numbers show controls possession far better than we give him credit for. But, given his remarkably inconsistent offensive season (he had 11 goals and 23 assists in 77 games, but would often go for long stretches without a point), I think the team gives him a two or three year deal, as I can’t see the Bruins wanting to commit to him longer than that just yet. It would also not be smart for Heinen to take a long term deal, as he could easily become more consistent (and I think he will), which would earn more money on his next contract. We often forget that Heinen is still young (he’s just 23) and is coming off a rookie season where he was consistent at both ends of the ice and had 16 goals and 31 assists in 77 games. We could easily look back on this season as just a bad sophomore slump, and he could rebound into the player we saw last year. So, because of that, I can reasonably see Heinen signing a two or three year contract worth around $2 million per season, and I think that’s what the Bruins will offer him. It’s a nice, cheap, prove-your-worth bridge deal that will allow Heinen to show whether or not he has more offense in him and if he can be consistent, and it allows the Bruins to determine whether or not he is in their long-term plans depending on what they see (I think he will be).
- Charlie McAvoy
In short, pay the man. Just do it. Don’t get too nitty-gritty. He’s the team’s number one defenseman of the present (as he proved during the playoff run) and of the future. He’s already a great two-way defenseman and will only improve. He deserves to be paid. Now, that being said, this is going to be a relatively difficult and interesting contract, although it will no doubt be figured out, as Charlie loves Boston and wants to stay and the team obviously wants him. The term of the contract is what intrigues me the most. If I were McAvoy, I would not want a max-term deal and instead would look for a bridge or mid-term deal, as he has dealt with health issues and injuries in his first two seasons (although all different-some freak, like the heart issue- and unlikely to recur) that have kept him off the ice for large chunks of his first two seasons. Because of this, he has yet to show what he can do in a full 82-game season, so if I were him I’d bet on myself and take a shorter term deal, because he will be able to command more money at the end of it. Also, the more offense a defenseman provides, the more he tends to get paid, and the offensive side of McAvoy will undoubtedly improve, although it is already better than most (seven goals and 21 assists in 54 regular season games this season, and two goals and six assists in 23 playoff games). Now, if I were the Bruins, I’d probably want the opposite. I’d want to lock him up to a long-term if not max-term deal because they know if they don’t they’ll end up paying him more in a few years and will have to go through negotiations again, this time with him arbitration eligible and under threat of an offer sheet. But, there is also an argument to be made for them wanting a shorter-term deal I think, although they appear to want a long-term deal for him. If they sign McAvoy to say a three or four year deal, they will have a lot more cap space to work with. They won’t have Backes’ egregious contract to deal with anymore, and Chara will (probably, although knowing him that is no guarantee) have retired at that point, so they will have more cap flexibility. Bergeron will need a new contract before then, but I would not be surprised if he takes another relatively team-friendly deal. Plus, the salary cap will be much higher. However, regardless of the term, McAvoy is going to get paid big money. In my opinion, he deserves the $7.5 million he is reportedly asking. But, I think if the Bruins go with a shorter contract, they will be able to get him down to about $7 million. They should avoid a long standoff over something as little as $500,000 (although that can be a big difference in the long run), as McAvoy will deserve every penny of what he gets and will be worth it in the end. To me, the best and smartest contract for both the player and the team would be four years at $7-$7.5 million per year, as it allows McAvoy to show what he can do in a full season, improve, and make more money at the end of it, and it will also bring the Bruins to a time where they have significantly more cap space. But, I don’t see this happening, as both the player and the team appear to want a long term deal. So, my thought is the contract will end up being eight years at $7.5 million per season, although in my opinion it isn’t the best way to go, but no one asked me so that doesn’t matter. All I can say with certainty though is just pay the man, he’s worth it and they won’t regret it.
Hockey Addict 